Key takeaways:

BTC price has a 65%-71% chance of dropping below $55,000 before Dec. 31, according to prediction markets.

Bettors don’t expect Strategy to sell its BTC holdings in 2026.

Whale selling and negative ETFs flows add to Bitcoin’s sell-side pressure.

Prediction markets see BTC bear market continuing

The majority of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin to resume its downtrend throughout 2026, with targets as low as $40,000.

As of Thursday, Polymarket bettors are pricing in about 71% odds of BTC dropping below $55,000 before Dec. 31, a 13% increase from the previous day.

Traders set 59% odds of BTC crossing below the $50,000 psychological level and a 46% chance that it goes as low as $45,000 before the end of the year.

The lower price target forecasts for BTC mimic those elsewhere. On fellow prediction site Kalshi, traders set 71% odds of Bitcoin dropping below $60,000, with a 65% chance that it drops below $55,000. The lowest price target on Kalshi is $40,000, with a 31% possibility that BTC drops to this level before Dec. 31.

Bitcoin’s low for 2026 sits at $59,940, reached on Feb. 6, and the last time the
BTCUSD
pair traded below $55,000 was in February 2024.

As Cointelegraph reported, some analysts believe that the long-term BTC price downtrend is still in play, warning that the rebound to $76,000 was a bull trap.

Will Strategy sell Bitcoin in 2026?

Bitcoin’s recent drop to $69,000 saw it slide below Strategy’s average BTC cost price, which is $75,696 at the time of writing.

But despite the expected drawdown in price, Polymarket odds for Strategy selling Bitcoin in 2026 remain below 15%, while expectations for routine buys remain elevated.

Polymarket traders still see routine Strategy purchases throughout the year as a high-probability event, with a 96% chance of it holding over 800,000 BTC by Dec. 31.

Last week, Strategy expanded its Bitcoin treasury to 761,000 BTC after buying 22,337 coins for roughly $1.6 billion.

Bitcoin ETF flows tread water

Meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) returned to net negative flows on Wednesday.

These were driven mostly by outflows from the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), data from investment firm Farside shows.

As Cointelegraph reported, the largest ETF offering from asset manager BlackRock saw $34 million in outflows as investor sentiment returned to “extreme fear.”
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:84c055953094b:0-bitcoin-prediction-markets-see-70-chance-btc-price-crashes-to-55k-in-2026/