BTC has been hovering near the lower end of its recent range, with ether (ETH) also trading close to $2,000, giving back some of the Monday gains seen after a bounce tied to shifting rhetoric around U.S.-Iran tensions.

Institutional flows have also offered limited support. According to SoSoValue data, U.S.-based spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $69.4 million in net inflows on March 30, while ether products saw $5 million in inflows. The figures mark a modest return of demand, though not enough to shift broader sentiment.

Recent positioning data and corporate activity also continue to display uneven demand. Bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto Holdings disclosed a $20 million sale at a loss, while Michael Saylor’s Strategy paused its weekly purchases, breaking a multi-week accumulation streak.

At the same time, Trump-linked American Bitcoin has continued to build holdings despite sliding share prices, highlighting a split between corporate buyers and sellers.

Limbo market

Analysts say the market is being pulled in opposing directions.
Bitcoin’s attempt to stabilize and chart an uptrend has been capped by external forces, per Simon Massabni, head of business development at XS.com. Rising oil prices, persistent inflationary pressures, and expectations of restrictive monetary policy are limiting risk appetite.

It seems those pressures intensified overnight. The impact from weakness across Asian equities and a surge in oil prices further signal how geopolitical risk has increasingly shaped capital allocation, said Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, echoed Lee’s view. Rodda pointed to a sharp market reaction, which likely stemmed from renewed escalation rhetoric from the Trump administration, including threats targeting Iranian energy infrastructure if negotiations fail.

Crude oil prices surged following the comments, while equities buckled. The duality has reinforced a risk-off tone, before remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that softened fears of further rate hikes offered a slight macro cooldown.

Tight liquidity

Within crypto, the result has been a tightly compressed market.

The mix of a policy pause and delayed conflict has shifted conditions from acute stress into low-liquidity oscillation, with bitcoin trading in a narrow $66,100 to $68,500 band, Bitunix analysts wrote in a Tuesday note.

They said price action is driven more by liquidity sweeps than by directional conviction. In this market setup, a break above resistance is needed to unlock the next leg higher.

The lack of market depth is also becoming a defining feature. Market makers have pulled back, widening spreads and reducing liquidity, leaving prices more sensitive to short-term catalysts such as economic data and geopolitical headlines.

Q2 outlook

With March drawing to a close, attention is turning to what comes next.

Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, said the outlook for April is cautiously constructive, with bitcoin likely to trade in a wider band between $60,000 and $84,000 depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve.

Additionally, stablecoins and bitcoin continue to serve as channels for capital flows, suggesting that underlying demand remains intact despite volatility, Zhang said.

More broadly, Zhang surmised that the second quarter presents a more binary setup.

A prolonged conflict that drives oil higher could tighten liquidity further and push bitcoin toward $55,000. A quick de-escalation, by contrast, could reopen risk appetite and support a move above $90,000.

According to The Block's price page, BTC hovered near $66,600 ahead of the U.S. market open, while ETH traded around $2,035.

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